Friday, July 31, 2009

Football Season and the NFC South

Going into training camp, and knowing very little about each team, I've decided to go through each NFC South team's schedule week by week and give out picks for the games. I'm won't claim to be an expert in the matter, but I'd like to think my analysis is at least some what accurate. I won't be going through the preseason, and these will all be baring injuries to major players. So, in alphabetical order, here's what I've come up with.

Atlanta Falcons
1 Miami - Miami was a surprise team last year, much like the Falcons. They also benefited from a relatively easy schedule. Will Miami be as good as 2008? No. Will they win this game? No.
2 Carolina - Carolina is always a tough game, and the return of Julius Peppers, despite his trade request, helps Carolina bring back 21 out of 22 starters. That said, I think the NFC South will be very tough at home, just like last year. I'll take the Falcons to go to 2-0.
3 @ New England - Both these teams might be playing with something to prove. Atlanta wants to prove 2008 wasn't a fluke, and New England wants to show Tom Brady still has the goods. I don't think Brady will be 100% until mid-season, but I think New England will be able to win this one at home.
4 BYE WEEK - A week 4 bye, just about the crappiest one there is. I'm just saying.
5 @ San Francisco - Atlanta comes off the bye vs. San Francisco, a team that seems to finally be coming together. Atlanta, rested and ready, takes this game before entering a very rough stretch.
6 Chicago - Chicago will most likely win the NFC North this season, mainly because they finally have a good QB. They'll be itching for revenge after last season's last second win by Atlanta, but Atlanta will find a way to pull this one out again.
7 @ Dallas - Dallas may have a stronger core without TO, but they also won't have anyone to keep the safety from jumping from receiver to receiver. This game will be tight, but I think Atlanta finds a way to win.
8 @ New Orleans - Old foes meet again, the Falcons and the Saints will hookup in a Big-12 like shoot-out. Who wins? It's the NFC South, which always favors the home team.
9 Washington - In the middle of a 7 game stretch vs the NFC South and NFC East, the Redskins come to town. I think the Redskins have a lot of potential, but how will Jason Campbell feel about Washington trying to pick up Jay Cutler and Matt Cassel? Team dysfunction gives it to Atlanta by a nose.
10 @ Carolina - The Falcons will have been holding on by the skin of their teeth at this point, and the Panthers will be coming of three much easier weeks. Take Carolina by 7.
11 @ NY Giants - How will the Giants fair without Plaxico Burress? Good question. Better question, how will they feel about hosting the Falcons after a bye? This might be the Falcons only double digit loss.
12 Tampa Bay - The Bucs are in a rebuilding mode, and without Gruden or Kiffin, don't expect this team to be anywhere near as good as they have been in the past. Atlanta should win.
13 Philadelphia - Atlanta wants revenge for last season's bad call loss in Philly. Philadelphia will be fighting for the NFC East crown. In a game that could swing either way, Atlanta will lose a heart breaker.
14 New Orleans - Having lost 3 of 4, Atlanta will come out hungry and fast against the Saints. as the season winds down, Atlanta gets their 8th win.
15 @ NY Jets - Mark Sanchez will be playing at this point, if he doesn't start the season for the Jets. He won't be as successful as Ryan or Flacco, and the Falcons win to guarantee their first ever back to back winning seasons.
16 Buffalo - The good news for Buffalo, they got TO. The bad news for Buffalo, they got TO. Falcons win again.
17 @ Tampa Bay - I said I think the NFC South will be tough at home, and I meant it. but the Bucs won't win this one as the Falcons match last seasons win total.

Season Record: 11-5

Carolina Panthers
1 Philadelphia - I expect Carolina to be good, but they won't be any better than their weakest link. That link is Jake Delhomme. The Panthers two-headed rushing attack carries them in this game, but for how long?
2 @ Atlanta - It's no secret that Atlanta and Carolina don't like each other. These may be two teams, passing in the night. Not what I think, this is the beginning of a great rivalry. Atlanta in a squeaker.
3 @ Dallas - I don't think Dallas will be near as good this year without TO. However, I also don't think they'll lose their first Monday Night game in their new stadium. Heart breaker for the Panthers.
4 BYE WEEK - I said it for Atlanta and I'll say it for Carolina. What a crappy bye week.
5 Washington - A week of for the game against Washington, and the Panthers will be happy to have it. In a relatively tight game, the Panthers get back to .500.
6 @ Tampa Bay - You've almost got to feel sorry for Tampa Bay. this season is likely to show how far they've fallen. Don't be surprised if Carolina wins in a laugher.
7 Buffalo - Buffalo has one very good receiver, an average QB, and a lot of role players. not a recipe for a winner. Take the Panthers for 3 in a row.
8 @ Arizona - I wasn't happy last year when Atlanta drew Arizona in the opening round, I think they're capable of lighting up any secondary on any Sunday. Fitzgerald will catch the game winner.
9 @ New Orleans - Three straight road games and 5 of their first seven. Carolina got no help from the schedule makers. New Orleans by less than a Touchdown.
10 Atlanta - Coming home, Carolina will be anger about 2 straight losses and about being .500 again. Atlanta will be the target of their anger as the Panthers win.
11 Miami - Miami got by on luck and a weak schedule. It's easy to have one when you have the other, but don't expect the Dolphins to have either. Carolina wins.
12 @ NY Jets - Mark Sanchez isn't as good as so many people believe he is. He won't lead the Jets to the playoffs this year, and he won't win this game.
13 Tampa Bay - The last thing the league wants is the Panthers rolling, but that's what they're going to get. Tampa Bay might just get steamrolled in this one.
14 @ New England - Just as the Panthers get rolling, they have to go to Foxboro. In December. They do like to run the ball, which will keep it close, but the Patriots will be rolling by this point and take the game at home.
15 Minnesota - This should be a match up of top 5 running attacks and top 5 defenses. The winner will be the team that doesn't break, and I'll take the Panthers to pull it off.
16 @ NY Giants - The Panthers will be in the thick of the battle for the South, the Giants in the battle for the East. Which team holds? The Panthers lose another cold weather game.
17 New Orleans - Last season, the Panthers had to win their last game against New Orleans to win the South. This season, they'll need it just to have a shot at the title, they win but fall just shy of the crown.

Season Record - 10-6

New Orleans Saints
1 Detroit - How many straight games will the Lions lose? Going back to 2006, this game will put them at 18.
2 @ Philadelphia - Philadelphia will be coming off a tough loss to open the season at Carolina. The come home angry, but still battle to beat the Saints.
3 @ Buffalo - Buffalo will not have much luck against the NFC South. Including my last to predictions, this will be 0-3 against them.
4 NY Jets - I expect Sanchez to start the season as the start for the Jets. I also expect the Jets to lose this game in New Orleans.
5 BYE WEEK - The Saints get to wait a whole week longer for their bye, it still sucks, though.
6 NY Giants - I don't think the Giants will be as good without Plax. And I also think New Orleans uses their Dome to their advantage in this win.
7 @ Miami - Coming off an impressive win against the Giants, the Saints start rolling and throw all over the field against the Dolphins.
8 Atlanta - New Orleans hates Atlanta, and really hates hosting them on MNF. In a high scoring affair, the Saints get the ball last, score last, and win.
9 Carolina - Coming in with 5 straight wins, the Saints are firing on all cylinders as they keep rocking and rolling along.
10 @ St. Louis - The Rams used to be the greatest show on turf, but the Saints may just be the greatest show indoors. This will put them to 7 straight.
11 @ Tampa Bay - Do teams look ahead in the NFL? 4 tough games coming up in what should have been an easy ways. The Saints slip up, however, and drop one to the Bucs.
12 New England - For as bad as Buffalo will be against the NFC South, New England will be that good. Even the Superdome isn't enough to slow down a rolling Patriots team.
13 @ Washington - Washington got Haynesworth for games like this, but the Saints just won't be denied. Bush breaks a long one as the Saints get back to their winning ways.
14 @ Atlanta - New Orleans will be happy to be getting near the end of this rough stretch, but Atlanta will feel the same way as they win and make the Saints losers of 3 out of 4.
15 Dallas - Hosting Dallas, the Saints are really looking to win again to hold onto the NFC South lead. They do it, in another tight game.
16 Tampa Bay - If not for Tampa Bay earlier, New Orleans would have been on a heck of a roll for New England. Time for payback as the Saints run it up.
17 @ Carolina - A win means the Saints win the NFC South. A loss means they need help. Looks like they'll need help.

Season Record - 11-5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
1 Dallas - Tampa Bay is rebuilding, granted the Falcons were last year as well, but the Bucs won't be the Falcons. This loss marks the beginning of a long season.
2 @ Buffalo - The Bucs are the first team to play the Bills in the South, and need a win if you look at what's ahead on their schedule. I don't think they'll get it.
3 NY Giants - I don't expect this game to be close as the Bucs fall to 0-3.
4 @ Washington - Another week, another game, another NFC East team, another loss.
5 @ Philadelphia - Philadelphia makes sure the NFC East sweeps the Bucs as they win as well.
6 Carolina - Starting NFC South play isn't exactly the best way to remedy the Bucs losing ways as they fall to the Panthers.
7 New England - New England won't play around as they dispatch the Bucs early in an ugly game.
8 BYE WEEK - The Best bye week among NFC South teams, and the Bucs will need it.
9 Green Bay - Coming off the by, a few things go right for Tampa Bay as they surprise Green Bay.
10 @ Miami - Miami won't be bad, but don't expect a playoff run out of them. Tampa won't be good, but manage a little momentum in their second win.
11 New Orleans - A little mini roll plus New Orleans thinking about New England helps the Bucs surprise the Saints.
12 @ Atlanta - After 3 straight wins, the Bucs have a little confidence brewing. To bad Atlanta will knock that back down.
13 @ Carolina - Carolina already beat Tampa in Tampa, and does the same thing in Charlotte.
14 NY Jets - A battle of franchise QBs as TB plays the NY Jets. In a slightly sloppy game, I expect the Bucs to slip by.
15 @ Seattle - Seattle has a QB near the end of his career, Tampa Bay one just starting. Youth unseats experience as the Bucs win again.
16 @ New Orleans - New Orleans is mad about the earlier loss, and fighting hard to win the NFC South. Neither bodes well for the team from Tampa.
17 Atlanta - Atlanta will almost be a lock for the playoffs at this point, but a win will help their cause as they mercifully end the Tampa Bay season.

Season Record - 5-11

So those are my picks, dependent upon tie breakers, I see the final standings as follows:

T-1 Atlanta Falcons 11-5
T-1 New Orleans Saints 11-5
3 Carolina Panthers 10-6
4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 5-11

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